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Week two of the 2015 legislative session was an eventful one, with a mysterious illness spreading through the House and Senate like cholera through a wagon train. We here in the Dem-NPL caucuses believe laughter is the best medicine (and perhaps that’s why so many of us remain seriously ill . . .), so with a jaunty attitude we pioneered on to fight the right fights for North Dakota. We also witnessed some head-shaking antics to go with our roiling stomachs. We bring you a healthy dose of this week’s legislative action in the below edition of Capitol Letters.
The right fights: Planning rather than panic amidst falling oil prices
Last week, there was bipartisan agreement that the state is strong.* This week, however, there’s been an air of unease in the capitol secondary to the falling price of oil and the potential impact sustained low prices could have on North Dakota’s tax collections. One key lawmaker even compared the issue to a “big, black cloud hanging over the session[.]”
Determined to approach the situation with a level head, Senator Jim Dotzenrod (Wyndmere) asked the crack staff at Legislative Council to put on their green eyeshades and crunch the numbers. We will let our faithful readers digest the entirety of this Legislative Council memorandum as leisure allows, but suffice it to say that state tax collections would take a big hit if the oil market remains flat.
For instance, if the price of oil averages $44 to $52 dollars a barrel throughout the biennium, the state would collect $3.181 billion less than predicted in the December 2014 revenue forecast. If the once-obscure oil tax “triggers” are pulled, collections could dip by an additional $2.4 billion.
The numbers aren’t pretty, but neither are they cause for panic. That was the message delivered by Senator Connie Triplett (Grand Forks) this week when she called for “backup budgeting” to simultaneously guard against both overspending and leaving critical needs unmet.
As noted in the Fargo Forum, “the idea would be to set up revenue-based trigger mechanisms for releasing contingent appropriations, or to give the Legislature’s Budget Section more power to approve them at certain levels[.]” Encouragingly, the idea was met with an open mind by Senate Majority Leader Senator Rich Wardner (Dickinson). Somewhat less open minded was House Majority Leader Al Carlson (Fargo), who said his intent was “to get a realistic (revenue) number that we believe would be accurate and budget off that[.]” We wish Representative Carlson luck, but a realistic revenue projection would be a first for North Dakota since the oil boom began. So we’re not counting on it.
Rather, Dem-NPL legislators will be pushing for a “Goldilocks” approach to appropriations this session — not too big, not too small, but just right for whatever revenue the state takes in over the coming months and years.
We can’t control the market price of oil, but we can control how we react to it. With contingent appropriations we can avoid running up red ink in the wake of continued low oil prices and also provide needed resources to address our state’s challenges if there is a correction in the market after the legislature adjourns. We think it’s a sensible approach to a serious concern, and we hope you’ll agree it’s the right fight for North Dakota.
*How falling oil prices make a black swan event more likely – The Wall Street Journal, January 8, 2014
Head-shaker of the week: Fighting Sioux re-do
In 2011, the GOP majority in the legislature took a running swan dive into quicksand when it decided to legislate on the issue of the University of North Dakota’s Fighting Sioux nickname. Four years hence, Representative Scott Louser (R-Minot) has decided to take another dip.
Louser’s bill, which would prohibit UND from adopting a nickname for another two and a half years under force of North Dakota law, was heard by a House committee this week. In remarks to the committee, Louser hoped for “compromise” on the nickname issue and said that not being called something has, somehow, been a “unique identifier” for UND.
We’re all about treating colleagues with respect here at Capitol Letters, so we won’t call Representative Louser names just because he doesn’t want UND to have one. But we will share what others have said about his bill: “[N]ot helpful,” said UND President Robert Kelley, with understated civility resembling that of a career diplomat. “[I]ll-conceived” and “dumb[,]” the Fargo Forum redundantly noted. One letter-writer even went as far as to categorize the bill as the sort of “bold commitment to do nothing” worthy of the U.S. Congress.
Louser’s decision to revisit the Fighting Sioux nickname reminds your Capitol Letters co-authors of the famous Monty Python dead parrot sketch: The legislative debate over the nickname has “passed on.” It is “no more.” It has “ceased to be.” It is “bereft of life.” Its “metabolic processes are now history.” It has “kicked the bucket, shuffled off its mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the beedin’ choir invisible.” And so on. The point is, let’s move on as a legislature and, in so doing, let UND move on as well.
Fortunately, it looks like Louser’s bill, HB 1155, will soon be nailed to the perch. Until then, we’ll be shaking our heads.
Meet a member:
Live in District 25? Interested in the North Dakota Dem-NPL House and Senate Caucuses? Or do you simply want to know more? Enjoy our new ‘Meet a Member’ feature. This week, we’re featuring one of our newest members, Rep. Alisa Mitskog, D-Wahpeton. Click here to find out how her first few days/weeks have been going at the North Dakota Capitol.
On to week three:
So long for now. We’ve got a big week in front of us, including consideration of legislation to fund oil impacts in western North Dakota. We’ll also have big announcements on pre-kindergarten and other key issues. Until then, keep the faith, keep up the fight, and like us on Facebook.